Perhaps PNoy should trade his Porsche for a Delorean.

In his self-appointed role as guru of the new Aquinomics, Prof Cielito Habito of the Ateneo Graduate School of Business alluded to the Reaganomics of the 1980s which preached that less government and lower taxes would promote growth through private investments.

Habito builds the case for an “economics of business confidence” where he points to the revival of private domestic investment which more than offset the drop in public and foreign direct investments during the first three quarters of the PNoy presidency. The hidden messaeg in all this is that when government gets out of the way, private investment soars.

He defends the underspending by the government in its first year by calling it the “economics of fiscal responsibility”. Here is how he explains it:

Some observers now fault the new administration for “underspending,” for indeed, not only has it spent less than it did last year, it has also spent even farther less than what had been programmed to be spent by this time. But before casting this government as inept and lacking absorptive capacity, one must remember that this year’s budget was still drawn up by the previous administration [emphasis added-ES]. And if the current government has been more prudent about spending the money, it could well be because they have found that they don’t have to spend as much as the former government would have, to accomplish as much.

And it seems they have. The Department of Public Works and Highways is one of the biggest “culprits” in the underspending. It turns out that the agency has made dramatic changes in the way public works projects are costed out, leading to substantial savings. For one thing, Public Works Secretary Rogelio Singson has significantly reduced allowable “indirect costs,” including contractors’ profit margins (and quite likely the so-called “bukol”), in public works projects. Coupled with a strict policy on transparent public bidding, the agency boasts of more than P2 billion in savings from 2,797 projects over the past year.

It seems quite astounding that Habito could claim that this year’s budget was drawn up by the previous administration. It beggars belief given that the president’s men spent the first six months engaged in a zero based budgeting process to weed out undesirable projects left behind by Mrs Arroyo.

While his explanation for the delays in DPWH disbursements remains plausible, it does not explain the delays in all the other departments. It would also appear dubious or incomplete when stacked against the DBM findings that delays in DPWH were due to re-alignments requested by regional offices.

But the more disturbing problem is that Habito conveniently disregards the evidence regarding spare capacity in the economy for capital spending. At a time when unemployment is rising, he has the audacity to suggest that it was a good thing for government to put its foot of the accelerator.

Habito like most of our economists seems to be taking his cue from the West where austerity measures seems to be taking hold as deficit hawks seem to gain ascendancy in the debate in both Europe and America.

Nobel Laureate Prof Paul Krugman who argued for a much larger stimulus under Obama back in 2009 and has been proven right by recent events with the stalling US recovery notes how the “Triumph of Bad Ideas” (referring to Reaganomics) has taken place. He is not alone in this, another Nobel winning economist Joe Stiglitz backs him up.

The same sort of triumph seems to be taking place in Aquinomics with the Palace announcing it has no plans to introduce any new tax measures in 2012 despite its intentions to increase spending to 1.8 trillion pesos from the current 1.6. The hubris of this plan is that they believe efforts to improve collection will work wonders in their second year when it clearly has not happened in the first.

Despite Prof Winnie Monsod’s calls for higher tobacco taxes and Prof Ben Diokno’s proposal for fiscal adjustment plan, Malacanang seems to be confident in its Aquino doctrine that “no new taxes” are needed. This makes the fulfillment of its 2012 expenditure program a pipe dream, just as the 2011 one led to “trickle down” economics with social expenditures actually dipping while military and police spending increased.

We need to recall that it was the result of tax reforms adopted under Cory Aquino for whom Monsod and Diokno are proxies that revenues from taxes as a share of the economy went up, and those under Fidel Ramos for whom Habito is a proxy that they gradually got eroded. The problem however is that in the battle of ideas, it seems the argument of Habito trumps that of Diokno and Monsod.

Doy Santos aka The Cusp (245 Posts)

Doy Santos is an economic policy analyst based in Adelaide, South Australia. He maintains a blog called The Cusp: A discussion of new thinking, new schools of thought and fresh ideas on public policy (www.thecusponline.org) and tweets as @thecusponline. He holds a Master in Development Economics from the University of the Philippines and an MS in Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University.


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