Timing of surveys captured, missed C-5 effect on Villar ratings?
By CARMELA FONBUENA
MANILA, Philippines – The results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey released on Tuesday shows that the numbers of Nacionalista Party presidential bet Manuel Villar Jr. decreased in Metro Manila, a development that SWS president Mahar Mangahas said could have been caused by the corruption allegations in the C-5 road project.
“Villar fell in Metro Manila…. So para sa akin, this issue about the C-5 could be said to have had an effect in Metro Manila. Because doon siya talagang nahirapan, nahihirapan,” Mangahas told “Dateline Philippines” on the ABS-CBN News Channel.
This conclusion is contrary to the numbers that another polling firm, Pulse Asia, released last Friday, showing that Villar was steady at 24 points in Metro Manila in both the January and February surveys.
How could 2 surveys conducted only 3 days apart in February have different conclusions on one issue?
The answer is timing. In this case, it is the timing of the January surveys.
The SWS survey in January was conducted from the 21st to the 24th. The survey period was conducted before the C-5 road controversy was deliberated in the Senate plenary.
It was on January 25 that Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile finally presented to the plenary the committee report on the C-5 controversy. The report sough the censure of Villar.
In the following days, the Senate continued interpellation on the report even when Villar refused to appear in the plenary. The issue was widely covered by the media.
This events were captured in the January survey of Pulse Asia because it was conducted from the 22nd to the 26th, giving the intensifying issue 1 more day to sink in voters’ consciousness.
It was possible that the negative publicity had not caught up with Villar when the SWS survey wrapped up in January, and thus reflected a still fairly high rating of 26% in NCR for the Nacionalista standard-bearer.
The effect of the C-5 issue was therefore captured in the February 24-28 survey, which showed his numbers dropping to 20%.
For its part, Pulse Asia told Newsbreak earlier that the its January poll, which wrapped up on the 26th, may have already captured the negative effects of C-5, thus its February results didn’t reflect any drop in the Metro Manila figures. (Newsbreak)