PAGASA has advised that as of 8PM 18 October 2010, Juan has exited La Union. The weather bureau has also published an update that as of 9PM 18 October, Juan was located 60 km west northwest of Baguio City (16.8°N, 120.1°E).
Super Typhoon Juan, international code name, “Megi,” was described by CNN meteorologist Ivan Cabrera as the strongest storm on the planet since 2005. That storm was Hurricane Wilma that hit south Florida in the United States. Juan, Cabrera added is the strongest storm in the Pacific Ocean since Typhoon Flo— a super typhoon that hit Okinawa, Japan in 1990.
Under Secretary Benito Ramos reported today that one life has been claimed by Typhoon Juan— from Tuguegarao City.
Past six hours— rainfall intensity was reported 54.0 mm for Tuguegarao City, 17 mm for Aparri, Baguio City reported 28.00 mm, Baler, Aurora, 10mm.
The lastest forecast track as of 2PM, Juan was located over Isabela. PAGASA estimates that in the next 24 hours, Juan will be at South China Sea. West-SouthWest and the exit will be between Ilocos Sur and La Union.
Signal No. 3 has been raised over Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Ifugao, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Ilocos Norte and La Union.
Signal No. 2 is over Batanes, Babuyan and Calayan Group. Pangasinan, Nueva ecija, Aurora and Tarlac.
Signal No. 1 is on Zambales, Pampanga, bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Northern Quezon as well as Polillo Island, Batanes and Metro Manila.
Signal dropped because Juan weakened as it traversed Northern Luzon.
As of 4PM, Juan was 60km southwest of Tugeugarao City (17.2°N, 121.3°E). The winds with Juan has slowed down from 225 kph to 180 kph with gustiness up to 215 kph.
Initial damage report
The provincial government of Isabela has declared a state of calamity, activating funds much needed to provide relief in the province.
Several uprooted trees in Isabela, Down power transmission lines and reported landslides over Cabugao, Apayao.
The nation’s capital should expect occasional rain and gusty winds.
Rain did not reach much of Magat Dam— about 4mm versus 16 mm in Cagayan. Bad news— Magat continues to have a deficit of 120 mm.
Cagayan has advised that power is off in the province given the pounding it is currently taking from Juan.
Governor Alvaro Antonio over at ANC reported that the rain wasn’t as bad as expected. The wind, he noted was far more powerful.
Power was reported off in much of Baguio. Kennon road is closed and classes in CAR will remain suspended tomorrow.
A number of passengers have been reported to be stranded.
DSWD Secretary Dinky Soliman via Leah Navarro tweeted,
That as of 3pm, 18 October, “Cagayan – 355 families w 1,390 persons affected in 10 mun with 20 brgys. 275 families with 1,095 individuals now in 11 evacuation centers. Csap units in lasam Cagayan utilized as temporary shelters by affected families. Isabela, 210 families with 943 persons are affected in 4 municipalities with 8 barangays. 200 families with 903 persons now at evacuation centers.”
Hong Kong Observatory has been tracking Juan, as projections indicate that it might hit the former British Colony.
PAGASA reported that at 11:25AM local time, the eye of super typhoon Juan made landfall at Sierra Madre Mountain, Estagno Point at Divilacan Peak, Isabela province.
The Weather Bureau projects that Super Typhoon Juan will enter Isabela via Palanan between 11 AM until 1PM today. Storm track projections point to an exit at Ilocos Sur-La Union area early tomorrow morning (19 October 2010).
PAGASA briefing on Typhoon Juan/Megi. Tuguegarao City recorded the most rainfall in the past 24 hours at 90.8 mm. Aparri station recorded 66.7 mm, Iba, Zambales just north of Manila recorded 54.6 mm rain while ISU, Echague, Isabela had 51.0 mm.
Based on PAGASA radar, rainfall rate is at 60 to 60 mm/hr, while based on satellite— the weather bureau noted that it would be at 55 to 65 mm/hr.
Ondoy-like rainfall possible.
Juan slowed down to 17 kph while maintaining 225 kph with gustiness of 260kph with a west-south-west direction, as it enters into Norther Luzon.
Coastal areas are to expect wave height of 14 meters.
PAGASA is conducting around the clock monitoring. Cebu satellite receiving facilities have also joined monitoring. PAGASA reported that Appari radio station is still reporting.
Based on historical track, Typhoon Juan is a “well-behaved tropical typhoon,” remarked Dr. Vicente Manalo.
Storm Signals are as follows:
Signal No. 1: Northern Quezon, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Metro Manila.
Signal No. 2: Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, Polillo Island, the rest of Aurora, Batanes
Signal No. 3: Northern Aurora, Quirino, N. vizcaya, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Babuyan & Calayan Group of Islands, Apayao
Signal No. 4: Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao
Projections reveal that Juan will be reduced to Category 3 as it makes landfall.
PAGASA remarked that most destructive typhoons they have recorded would take a lower route.
PAGASA update as of 6 o’clock in the morning, 18 October 2010 that Typhoon Juan is expected to make landfall in Isabella province by Noon today. It will pass through Mountain Province, and is projected to exit Ilocos Sur province before midnight.
Juan continues to have 225 kph winds with gustiness up to 260 kph. It is moving in a West-SouthWest direction at 19 kph. As of 6AM, it was found to be at 190 km east of Tugeugarao, Cagayan (17.5°N, 123.5°E).
Public Storm Warning Signal 4 is raised over Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Mt. Province and Ifugao.
Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, Benguet, Quirino, Nueva Viscaya and Northern Aurora have signal number 3.
Public Storm Warning Signal # 2 is raised over Ilocas Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Rest of Aurora, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija and Polillio Island.
Local government, DepED and CHED have authority to suspend school. Only Pre-schoolers have no class today under provinces with signal number 1—- Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Northern Quezon, Rizal, Laguna, Batangas, Metro Manila.
Weather Underground stormtrack:
PAGASA raised storm warning signal 1 over nation’s capital and some parts of Region 4.
The weather bureau projects that Juan will make an entry at Northern Isabela 8 am to 10 am Monday, to exit Ilocos Sur at 7 pm to 9 pm.
Typhoon Juan slowed down, heading west southwest. Juan continues to have 225 kph winds.
Based on radar, rainfall rate is 50 to 60 mm/hr, based on Satellite 56 to 65 mm/hr. This is more than Ondoy.
Storm signal #3 has been raised over Batanes, Calayan & Babuyan Grp. of Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Quirino, N.Viscaya, Northern Aurora.
Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Benguet, the rest of Aurora are at Signal 2.
Pangasinan, Tarlac, N.Ecija, Polilio Island, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Quezon, Metro Manila, Rizal are now at storm signal 1.
There is a distinct possibility that Magat Dam will have to dump water.
Weather Underground updated their stormtrack:
Weather Underground projects that Juan will drop to a category 2 storm as it exits Ilocos Sur.
PAGASA advices the public to keep monitoring.
PAGASA has raised signal number 4 over Cagayan, Isabela provinces in Northern Luzon. Max winds are now at 225 kph, gustiness 260kph located 390 km east of Aparri, Cagayan, Philippines. The Philippine weather bureau has officially classified Juan as a Super-Typhoon.
PAGASA advised Northern Luzon that at least one person in the house would be awake to keep watch as the weather worsens and to keep monitoring government advisory. Power stations may take a proactive approach and shut down power. All coastal regions are advised to evacuate.
How badly would signal no 4 strength typhoon cause damage? Trees could be uprooted. A coconut plantation could suffer severe damage under Signal No. 4.
The Weather Bureau estimates 20 mm per hour rain. Typhoon Ondoy rain fall was 40 to 50 mm, but PAGASA clarifies that 20 mm per hour may change as better picture from Appari radar is received. This as the storm approaches Northern Philippines.
Storm signal number 3 is now in effect over the provinces of Batanes, Calayan & Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Quirino, Northern Aurora.
Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, rest of Aurora have all been designated under Storm Signal No. 2. While storm signal 1 was raised in Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija and Polillo Island.
Super Typhoon Juan is projected to exit Northern Luzon via Ilocos to South China Sea in 24 hours.
Metro Manila has no storm signal, classes to continue in the nation’s capital. As of PAGASA’s 5pm press conference, the capital is expected to be spared, but the weather bureau cautions that this storm track could change and encourages the public to keep monitoring their advisories.
Just to put things in perspective, Typhoon Milenyo (Xangsane) was a category 4 typhoon that had 215 kph winds.
PAGASA for historical context cited Rosing (1995), and Anding (1981) as similar storms.
PAGASA will have another press conference at 11 pm, Manila time— as the weather bureau may update and upgrade more provinces to signal 4 as the need may arise.
The public is advised to keep monitoring government advisories in case situation changes rapidly.
Update-9Weather Underground classifies Megi/Juan as a Category 5 storm.
China’s National Meteorological Center in response to Megi has raised its alert level to Orange— its second highest warning. All ships are to return to port and prepare.
PAGASA reported that as of 2PM, Sunday 17 October 2010, Juan was spotted at 430 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.6°N, 126.1°E). Juan has winds reaching 195 kph per hour, with gustiness to 230 kph. It is still moving west, but has slowed down to 22 kph.
According to the Philippines National Disaster Coordinating Council, the province of Cagayan is starting to feel the effect of the storm.
storm track via Weather Underground
Update-8PAGASA is reporting that it is sunny in Baguio, Cagayan and Isabela at the moment though Storm signals have been raised across much of Northern Luzon.
Cagayan, Calayan, Babuyan Group and Isabela are now at signal no. 3.
Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Northern Aurora have signal no. 2.
La Union, Benguet, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, and Aurora have signal No. 1.
Stormy conditions are expected to begin in the afternoon.
Update-7ANCAlerts is reporting that NDCC has control of Magat Da
NDCC: We already have control over Magat dam. Hindi sila magbubukas ng dam nang walang coordination sa PAGASA at OCD
— ABS-CBN News Channel (@ANCALERTS) October 17, 2010
Update-6Updated satellite image to 0130 – 17 October 2010 via PAGASA (click image for larger picture).
Update-4: PAGASA— the Philippines weather bureau has provided an update on Typhoon Juan, internationally known as Megi. As of 7 o’clock in the morning, Manila time, it was located nearly 600 km off the Eastern coast of Aparri, Cagayan (18.7°N, 127.8°E). The storm has intensified to 160 kph from 140 kph in our previous update, with gustiness reaching 195 kph up from 170kph. It is moving West at 24 kph.
A travel advisory has been given by the Weather Bureau urging all travelers to northern luzon to defer their trip.
No Flood Watch on river basins
So far no flood warnings have been issued on river basins being monitored by PAGASA.
PAGASA goes to Red Alert
Four meter storm surges and swell are expected. Earlier advisories have asked boats not to leave. The Weather Bureau has also advised power stations to secure and evacuation centers to prepare to take in people.
Update-5CNN Center quoted DOST Secretary Mario Montejo that Juan is “expected to make landfall by Monday, in northern Luzon at or near super-typhoon strength with winds possibly in excess of 200 kph (124 mph).”
PAG-ASA update as of 4PM on 16 October 2010, Juan was located at 820 km east of Northern Luzon (18.4°N, 130.9°E) and still with winds at 140 kph and gustiness of 170 kph. It was found to be heading for a west-northwest direction at 24 kph. It remains on target to hit Luzon.
This article was originally published: Oct 16, 2010 @ 15:33
Typhoon Juan— international codename, Megi is considered a category 4 storm and has begun to exert influence over Luzon weather. Flooding has been reported in various parts of the nation’s capital. Between Basyang and Juan, the government has made a big deal about improving the ability to forecast the weather.
The weather bureau has issued its first Gale Warning for Juan. Gale force winds associated with the story is expected to surge in the North and East of Luzon. S