The pro-impeachment forces in the House will likely get the 1/3 vote needed to impeach Ombudsgirl Merci Gutierrez.
Gutierrez has better prospects in the Senate because a 2/3 vote is required to convict her.
But even before the trial begins, the pro-Gutierrez cabal will ask: Does the Constitutional requirement of 2/3 vote to convict refer to the composition of the Senate which is 24 senators or does it mean 2/3 of the 23 senators currently serving?
If the Senate uses 24 votes as basis, then 16 votes are required for conviction. Since there are only 23 senators then that means Gutierrez already has one vote in her favor, by default. So only 7 have to vote to acquit her.
If the Senate uses 23, and 2/3 of the senators vote to convict, then Gutierrez will go to the Supreme Court. And she can expect to win. How? The SC will hold their decision in abeyance until the issue becomes mooted by her retirement.
Anyway, whether the Senate bases its vote on 24 or 23, I think Gutierrez has more than an even chance of acquittal.
How the senators will vote, in alphabetical order:
1. Angara will vote according to his best interest.
2. Joker Arroyo will vote to screw Noynoy. He has not forgiven Cory Aquino for firing him.
3 and 4. The Cayetano siblings are Villar’s adopted children. They will do what foster papa tells them to do.
5. Frank Drilon will vote to convict.
6. Enrile will vote according to his best interest.
7. Escudero will vote according to his best interest.
8. Jinggoy Estrada will vote to please his father. Nothing is more important to him than beating JV for the title of favored son.
9. TG Guingona will vote to convict.
10. Gringo Honasan will follow his mentor Enrile.
11. Ping Lacson will vote to convict if he is allowed to vote.
12. Lito Lapid is clueless. He will do as GMA wishes.
13. Loren Legarda will follow her mentor Angara.
14. Bongbong Marcos will vote to convict.
15, 16, and 17. Serge Osmena, Kiko Pangilinan, and Ralph Recto will vote to convict unless any one of them feels he is taken for granted.
18. Bong Revilla is also clueless and will do what GMA wishes, unless it will endanger his position as Chairman for Life of the Committee on Public Works.
19. Miriam Santiago is a lunatic. She will vote according to the phases of the moon.
20. Tito Sotto, like Lapid, is clueless. However, unlike Lapid, he does not know it.
21. Trillanes will vote to convict.
22. Manny Villar is not Villarroyo for nothing.
23. Migs Zubiri will say he will vote according to his conscience. Unfortunately he has none. As a matter of fact, he is not even a senator, if by senator you mean one who was elected by voters and not by Abalos and the Ampatuans.
Before I forget, are senators allowed to abstain from voting in an impeachment trial?