Will the Senate convict Merci?

The pro-impeachment forces in the House will likely get the 1/3 vote needed to impeach Ombudsgirl Merci Gutierrez.

Gutierrez has better prospects in the Senate because a 2/3 vote is required to convict her.

But even before the trial begins, the pro-Gutierrez cabal will ask: Does the Constitutional requirement of 2/3 vote to convict refer to the composition of the Senate which is 24 senators or does it mean 2/3 of the 23 senators currently serving?

If the Senate uses 24 votes as basis, then 16 votes are required for conviction. Since there are only 23 senators then that means Gutierrez already has one vote in her favor, by default. So only 7 have to vote to acquit her.

If the Senate uses 23, and 2/3 of the senators vote to convict, then Gutierrez will go to the Supreme Court. And she can expect to win. How? The SC will hold their decision in abeyance until the issue becomes mooted by her retirement.

Anyway, whether the Senate bases its vote on 24 or 23, I think Gutierrez has more than an even chance of acquittal.

How the senators will vote, in alphabetical order:

1. Angara will vote according to his best interest.

2. Joker Arroyo will vote to screw Noynoy. He has not forgiven Cory Aquino for firing him.

3 and 4. The Cayetano siblings are Villar’s adopted children. They will do what foster papa tells them to do.

5. Frank Drilon will vote to convict.

6. Enrile will vote according to his best interest.

7. Escudero will vote according to his best interest.

8. Jinggoy Estrada will vote to please his father. Nothing is more important to him than beating JV for the title of favored son.

9. TG Guingona will vote to convict.

10. Gringo Honasan will follow his mentor Enrile.

11. Ping Lacson will vote to convict if he is allowed to vote.

12. Lito Lapid is clueless. He will do as GMA wishes.

13. Loren Legarda will follow her mentor Angara.

14. Bongbong Marcos will vote to convict.

15, 16, and 17. Serge Osmena, Kiko Pangilinan, and Ralph Recto will vote to convict unless any one of them feels he is taken for granted.

18. Bong Revilla is also clueless and will do what GMA wishes, unless it will endanger his position as Chairman for Life of the Committee on Public Works.

19. Miriam Santiago is a lunatic. She will vote according to the phases of the moon.

20. Tito Sotto, like Lapid, is clueless. However, unlike Lapid, he does not know it.

21. Trillanes will vote to convict.

22. Manny Villar is not Villarroyo for nothing.

23. Migs Zubiri will say he will vote according to his conscience. Unfortunately he has none. As a matter of fact, he is not even a senator, if by senator you mean one who was elected by voters and not by Abalos and the Ampatuans.

Before I forget, are senators allowed to abstain from voting in an impeachment trial?

Manuel Buencamino

Buencamino was a weekly columnist for Today and Business Mirror. He has also written articles in other publications like Malaya, Newsbreak, "Yellow Pad" in Business World, and "Talk of the Town" in the Inquirer. He is currently with Interaksyon, the news site of TV5. MB blogged for Filipino Voices, blogs for ProPinoy and maintains a blog, Uniffors.com. Game-changers for him, as far as music goes, are Monk, Miles, Jimi, and Santana.

  • Bert

    I think highly of you too, UP n and Karl. You’re both good guys, too, and that’s coming from the heart.

  • KG

    Ok then.

    ps I know u r both good guys.

  • UP nn grad

    KG: Sir, yes, sir!

    bert’s a good guy. bert’s doggedness about wanting a Pilipinas with much less corruption than the GMA years is correct and proper. now bert is loyally “Yellow” to a fault, but his head is straight and bert’s heart is solidly caring.

  • KG

    Tapos na ba ang sparring session nyong dalawa?

  • UP nn grad

    Pardoning Trillanes and the other anti-GMA soldiers was well within Persi-Noynoy’s right, but I’m working to convince ManuelB and thirty-five more Pinoys-in-Pinas that Noynoy-logic is wrong with his “… but they all meant so well, so they should be pardoned. So what if they put the lives of civilians at risk by breaking the military code — Trillanes and company meant so well in making allegations against corruption in Malacanang and inside the AFP, so truly, Pilipinas rule-of-law is such that those actions should be encouraged.”

  • UP nn grad

    heh, heh, heh…. bert.

    I’m getting there, bert, I’m getting there. If I can get fourteen more people to realize that Noynoy getting this ginormous mandate — 56% of the votes!!! — from last election still doesn’t give him the authority to arrest the members of the Supreme Court who disagree with his predilections, then I’m making progress for Pilipinas, heh heh heh.

    (Noynoy actually got 67% of the votes, but the Gibo and Villar dagdag-bawas via PCOS took hold and Noynoy votes got reduced to 56%.)

    • Bert

      Well, UP n, in the first place, even if CJ Corona himself personally admits that he’s there in the Supreme Court to protect the interests of GMA I don’t think Noynoy has the predilection nor the heart nor the inclination to be a dictator even if his mandate is 100%, nothing to indicate he’s that kind, no, no, no, no. So, there is actually zero basis for your effort to convince fourteen people or thirty five of whatever it is you’re trying to convince them to. Zero, zilch, nada!

      So, please stop tiring yourself.

      Leave the shadow-boxing to Manny Pacquiao, if you get my drift.

      • UP nn grad

        but bert: Noynoy answers the call of the people, remember? He was not going to run against –GMA– Erap except he heard voices for him to run Presidency-201.

        Now, you are already among the Pinoys-in-Pinas who believe that the current Supreme Court is Arroyo’s court. If Noynoy begins to hear the voices again and that the current court is an illegal Supreme Court…. why, he just may act on the voices that he hears and go against -the Constitution– Corona or whoever is putting roadblocks against Daang Matuwid despite what you believe he is not inclined to do.

        • Bert

          Ahh, UP n, you’re getting paranoid. For no discernible reason.

          And you’re not the paranoid kind of dude the last many years I’ve known you since your UP n Student days during those times of Gloria’s reign.

          And you’re getting paranoid now, exactly at the wrong time, trying to convince ManuelB and me and fourteen and thirty five more people to beware of Noynoy becoming a dictator.

          Oh well, what can I do? I can’t help you, Pare.

          • UP nn grad

            ahhh, now you hear the message.

            the danger is less the Beth Angsioco’s who voted against Noynoy but now say he is president but are disappointed that the President is focusing on issues he had promised before. The Yellow-Army loyals have to listen to those who wore a different campaign-2010 color shirt, bert, even if Noynoy has the mandate of the people demonstrated by him getting 56% of the votes.

          • Bert

            Oh, not to worry, UP n.

            The Filipino people, having learned their lessons from the past administration, now knows if a wolf is a wolf in sheep’s clothing without having to hear paranoid warnings coming from those who wear different campaign color shirts continuously crying wolf to sow confusion without really knowing what and where a wolf is.

            The people who gave Noynoy the mandate are wise people and know exactly who an honest man is when they see one. Well, you can say they’re naive, but, to see a wolf and say it’s a sheep in wolf’s clothing…that’s more naive, :).

          • UP nn grad

            bert: just don’t tell cocoy to trust Noynoy absolutely because Cocoy still is disappointed about the decision to protect UsecPuno despite deLima-IIRC-recommendations.

  • UP

    “…bert, cocoy, MLQ3, Walden Bello, Trillanes and TG Guingona…”

    Is that like your little hate list? Order of battle perhaps?

    • UP nn grad

      baby steps… first, the libel laws. And if Pinas can deal with that, then maybe Pinas can amend the penal code enacted in 1930 which has jail-time threatening any medical personnel who wishes to provide health services to women requesting abortions for health reasons or when the woman’s life is endangered by the pregnancy.

      http://propinoy.net/2010/08/05/the-woman-the-law-and-the-unborn-baby-the-abortion-ban-in-the-philippines/

    • UP nn grad

      to manuelB: bert is so bespoken to Noynoy that he will never be threatened with libel. you, too.

      • bespoken as in spokes on the wheel that will run over all those who dare put potholes in the Daang Matuwid?

        • UP nn grad

          have said this before…. Noynoy should get Trillanes to staff three truckloads of soldiers and ex-soldiers (plus maybe eight truckloads of civilians to include ManuB and others who can be enticed to get into the trucks) to run out of the Supreme Court any justice — chief or not — who dare put potholes in the Daang Matuwid.

          • manuelbuencamino

            cute

          • Bert

            Heheh, UP n, I said no need for that, have you forgotten?

            Let the Supreme Court be, it’s irrelevant anyway, the people don’t believe in it anymore, and the Justices know it. Just read what its spokesman, Midas Marques, was saying. He was saying denials that the Supreme Court is not a Gloria Court because of their decision to impeach Merceditas when in fact and in truth their Chief Corona himself do not want to impeach Merceditas, hehehe.

            There is no need for truckloads of soldiers, the ball is in the Congress and the Senate now. You, us, the Filipino people, will be the Judges and Justices. And when the people judge, conscience will take its toll, it has taken its toll already. More to come.

            Aren’t you glad something like these are happening now? Or would you rather return back to the last nine years?

            Would you? Would you?

  • UP nn grad

    Hmmmm….. lunatic?

    ..conscience… none??? not even a senator?

    I hope one or more senators hit Manuel Buencamino with libel charges. Not that I want Manuel Buencamino to go to jail nor even feel obligated to be mouthpiece of the administration; I just want Manuel Buencamino to feel this urge to get bert, cocoy, MLQ3, Walden Bello, Trillanes and TG Guingona to look into amending Pilipinas libel laws before someone really important goes to jail for it.

  • arikdik

    LOL :))