CCT

Defying Gravity

Faltering growth prospects for the economy and paralysis over how to kick-start big infrastructure projects do not seem to have dampened public support for the president.

Its economic managers remain fixated on ‘fiscal consolidation’ (a euphemism for shrinking public works expenditures to close the fiscal gap) as its roll-out of PPP (public-private partnerships) hits yet another snag with a new ‘review’ announced by the government. The confusion over how to proceed with its centerpiece program demonstrates how that it entered office armed only with platitudes and no real plan.

Yet even as punters from multilateral institutions, ratings agencies and think tanks alike place a down-side risk to the country’s growth prospects, the poll numbers of the president have headed upward. This strange phenomenon needs some explaining. How has P-Noy been able to defy gravity with his public approval ratings?

Some would point to his campaign against corruption as the source of such levitation. Yet, the same reason was given when his poll numbers were slipping early this year. The explanation was that as the public became familiar with so much corruption occuring in high places their faith in government collapsed. So why is the opposite happening now?

Perhaps it is because previously the pursuit of justice seemed to be going nowhere; whereas now, with the help of a few unexpected whistle-blowers, it seems to be heading in the right direction. That is one plausible explanation.

Another comes from the notion that growth and development do not necessarily go together and that despite sinking growth figures, the government has attended to the material needs of the populace through such programs as the CCT or conditional cash transfers.

Indeed one can characterize the government of P-Noy as following the script laid out by the Washington Consensus of promoting macroeconomic stability (to the detriment of growth) while providing social safety nets (to buy-off public support) and pursuing good governance (despite setbacks in providing public infrastructure).

In fact, some are pressing P-Noy to take advantage of his high popularity to pursue charter change and maximize the liberalization agenda by opening up the remaining sectors of the economy reserved for local participation and ownership. No less than the leaders of both the Senate and the House concur in this. As I pointed out in a previous post, the president is right to be a little wary of this move (although his reasons may differ from mine).

Others would have him go the other way and review the existing liberal trade and investment policies that have been in place for the last three decades as the country’s manufacturing and exports base suffers from a strong peso and seems highly concentrated within a few sectors, import dependent, and without much depth.

The PPP conundrum is emblematic of this confusion. P-Noy’s government started out with complete faith in private markets to ‘get prices right’, but it seems to be coming around to Sec Roxas’ belief that the public sector can do better. His proposal for the state to finance and build the projects itself, and then sell them off to the highest bidders to operate and manage would be a complete turnaround from the president’s previous position.

The idea behind Mr Roxas’ plan is that to get the ‘right price’ the government should use its access to cheap capital that is not available to private firms. That makes perfectly good sense, but the problem with his proposal is that government has not been known to be an efficient producer of public works projects. This could wind-up making the government penny-wise, pound foolish in the end.

A third way was actually proposed by me in another earlier post. The idea would be for the government to access cheap capital and create a fund that would either partner or loan these out to projects for either infrastructure or regional development needs. This would allow the cost of financing and construction to be lowered by leveraging the advantages of both public and private institutions achieving the best of both worlds.

This approach I must admit is hardly original. It was applied by South Korea in promoting industrial development through partnering with the private sector during its fast growth phase of development (see Alice Amsden’s book Asia’s Next Giant). The emergence of light and heavy import substituting industries which supplied export-oriented manufactures owed much to this strategy.

The economic bureaucracy there was a master at engaging in entrepreneurial self-discovery by importing licenses to operate foreign technology and then auctioning them off to private firms while at the same time providing them with sovereign guarantees and cheap project financing (I recommended a similar approach through an innovation fund which the government could create by borrowing some of the excess dollar reserves of the Bangko Sentral).

Indeed the government cannot live on macroeconomic stability and social insurance alone. For its growth trajectory to shift upwards, it will need to have a credible employment and industry strategy. Its PPP program was touted in P-Noy’s first state of the nation address as the vehicle for achieving this. In addition, the government will need to foster innovation and investment.

Let us hope that the administation finally gets to find a set of workable arrangements to get its pipeline of projects off the ground. Defying gravity with its poll numbers is one thing the government can do at the moment, but keeping developmental projects suspended in the air is something the nation simply cannot afford.

UPDATE:

DOTC Sec Roxas’ recent announcement of a five year plan involving 380 or 426 billion pesos (depending on which paper you read, the PDI or Business Mirror respectively) sheds more light on the new policy direction.

Essentially, a couple of things came out of the press release. The first is that aside from the PPP vehicle the government will be entertaining other conventional ways of financing infrastructure projects including overseas development assistance, foreign loans and items in the national budget. The second is that the Chinese contract to construct the NAIA to Pampanga rail line has now been superseded by a fast-rail project which will extend to Clark instead of Mabalacat.

These two moves by Mr Roxas clearly indicate a stronger more interventionist role for the state on offer from the one originally envisioned by the president. While P-Noy was only interested in handing infrastructure projects to the private sector, standing back and watching it work its magic, the DOTC secretary is willing to roll-up his sleeves and seek a better bargain or boot out in this case a poorly performing contractor to deliver a much better outcome.

His promise of a scorecard for his 5-year plan underscores the managerialist aspect of his approach to strategic projects in contrast to the laissez faire attitude of the president. The 90 billion a year average spend represents almost 1% of annual GDP. If he is able to roll this out on time, it will help provide a much needed stimulus to the economy at a time when the global economy goes through an adjustment to slower growth.

It makes me wonder what his rival Vice Pres Jojo Binay will now seek to do in order to outshine Mr Roxas. Will he adopt the proposal of Councilor Lagman of Quezon City and push for a 1% real property national tax as proposed by some fiscal experts to fund a national social housing program? Will he push for the creation of a housing department? Time will tell.

Is the Good Governance path a dead end?

Is the “markets plus good governance” formula indeed the enlightened way to economic Nirvana that its adherents say it is?

Warning: I am following Paul Krugman’s tradition of labeling some of my posts ‘a bit wonkish’. Some of the succeeding material might be a bit taxing, but for those who persevere, the results can be quite rewarding.

The Fork in the Road

During his first state of the nation address, President Noynoy Aquino or PNoy told us that the country faced a fork in the road. On the one hand was the destructive path of evil tread by the Inglorious Beast, on the other was the righteous path of good governance that he the Benign One would lead us down.

Nearly one year on and it seems the righteous path is headed nowhere with allegations of BFFism floating around, corruption and smuggling continuing unabated, and a government that cannot seem to spend its own lean budget in a timely manner.

Despite these setbacks, the Palace continues to put up a brave face. PNoy after all has become the new poster boy for Washington’s policy consensus having been endowed with a grant by the US Milennium Challenge Corporation to pursue its Milennium Development Goals to halve poverty.

This follows the Philippines belated exit from the IMF emergency loan program. The ADB for its part turned on the tap by partly financing the expansion of the Conditional Cash Transfers program, the government’s flagship project for ending poverty. Meanwhile private investments were being sought to fund the government’s public infrastructure program.

The present seems to echo the 1950s and 60s when the country was held in such high esteem by international donors during the last “big push” towards development. We can of course see what that era of donor dependency produced when it culiminated with Ferdinand Marcos’s debt driven boom and crash of the 1970s and 80s.

The Righteous Path

The 1990s saw the rise of economic fundamentalism among policy circles the world over. The precepts of this view bordered on religious zeal. The high priests and prophets of this pseudo-religion proclaimed that there was but one model, the Market.

All those on the path to the Promised Land had to be guided by the Invisible Hand of the Market. Thou shalt have no other models before me was the first commandment. The Philippines under the yolk of the IMF had to follow these strictures. We soon found that the Market could be very exacting and vengeful. Many of the vulnerable, “uncompetitive” and at risk sectors would fall by the way-side and suffer from its discipline.

Despite all the pain that followed from swallowing this bitter pill, the economy did not grow sufficiently fast enough to deliver our people from the clutches of poverty. Why our leaders cried, has the Market abandoned us? We found more and more of our countrymen being led into exile, into servitude abroad. Where have we fallen short? they asked.

Then from on high came the answer.

In the 2000’s, a new covenant was sealed. We were now told that we needed an intercessor to mediate on our behalf. That Intercessor was called Institutions. For the magic of the Market to come into our lives, we needed to repent of our evil ways and follow the path of Good Governance. To convince us, the apostles of the new covenant showed us this sign (click to zoom):

From the pages of the IMF’s journal Finance and Development, Kaufmann and Kraay sought to demonstrate that good governance is the path through which all nations need to pass to get to economic salvation. It shows by implication that countries which have adopted Western standards of governance flourish economically, and countries that have shunned them tend to have floundered.

Indeed though it sounds tautological the very simple and coherent nature of this message, a message that puts it all on our ability to be born again to a re-awakened sense of right and wrong, has enamored most of our elders in the political and business community. Even Mrs Arroyo claimed to tread on this path, but she had stumbled along the way. In 2010, Mr Aquino pledged to bring us back on it.

We would soon be joining the rich club with his slogans like Kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap (no corruption, no poverty) and Daang matuwid (the Righteous Path). PNoy was singing from the same hymn book of the new Washington Consensus (Markets + Institutions = Economic Nirvana).

The real Fork in the Road

The development experts, who had once written us off, welcomed us back in the fold like a Prodigal Son. In his first year in office, PNoy relaxed on spending thinking that we had already been saved and that through the grace of the Market we would soon be rolling in the clouds along with our richer ASEAN neighbors who had already passed on to the other side.

Such a seductive world view, with everything tidily falling into place–that is until you consider the Inconvenient Truth from the real world. It turns out that things don’t necessarily follow according to the message. Take a look at this contradicting sign courtesy of Mushtaq Khan from the UNCTAD’s Discussion Papers (the UNCTAD being the IMF’s poorer cousin).

It draws on a similar data set that Kaufmann and Kraay used covering indicators of good governance and economic well-being from the 1990s predominantly. We find that countries can actually be grouped into three: the rich ones (circled in the upper right-hand corner), the poor ones (circled in the bottom left-hand corner), and the ‘convergence club’ countries (circled in the upper left-hand corner).

From the chart we can see that the members of the converging economies (on the upper left-hand corner) advanced economically first before improving institutionally. In fact the convergence club performed on average just as poorly on the corruption scale as the diverging economies (on the lower left-hand corner).

(Update: Although the regression line is upward sloping, indicating a positive correlation between anti-corruption and economic growth, an analysis of the three clusters of countries comprised of rich, poor and convergence club members reveals the direction of causality to flow from growth to control of corruption, not the other way around)

Indeed if we examine the economic histories of the convergence club members, we will find that they did not adhere strictly to the ‘righteous path’ of Markets plus Institutions. Japan, Korea and China developed not by relying on the Invisible Hand of the Market alone, but by wielding the Visible Boot of the State to coordinate, reward and punish industry players in accordance with their rational industrial policies.

Instead of relying on impersonal contracts under the Market framework, they used informal contracting under different guises, the keiretsus, chaebols and guanxi, to create secure property and contract rights to protect investors in strategic sectors within their economies. These institutions did not come from Western capitalism but were home grown. Indeed the alternative of implementing Western-style rule of law throughout the system would have been beyond their reach at the time they were emerging.

Chalmers Johnson who documented the rise of industrial policy in Japan by studying MITI the lead agency of its industrialization, wrote that

(a) part of the MITI perspective is impatience with the Anglo-American doctrine of economic competition. After the war MITI had to reconcile itself to the occupation-fostered market system in Japan, but it has always been hostile to American-style price competition and anti-trust legislation. Sahashi likes to quote Schumpeter to the effect that the competition that really counts in the capitalist system is not measured by profit margins but by the development of new commodities, new technologies, new sources of supply, and new types of organizations.

What this points to is the fact that rather than the fork in the road being a choice between the Righteous Path of good governance versus bad governance, the decision we are faced with is whether we continue down the same old road of the (new) Washington Consensus or change course and move more towards the BeST Consensus (Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo Consensus) bearing in mind that no other country has successfully traveled down the path of the former into the promised land.

A wake-up call

So is the good governance path a dead end? If we are to look at economic history, the answer seems to be a resounding YES. Unfortunately, the tribe of PNoy seems to have fallen head over heels for it. They will not accept any deviation from this course. The eunuchs and high priests surrounding him are all advising their leader to stick to their teachings.

Who can blame them? The gospel they have accepted is a truly seductive one. It does not require us doing our homework, building home grown institutions consistent with channeling resources into more producitive activities. It fits with our fatalistic, religious upbringing to rely on someone or something external to deliver us from evil.

The results of the alternative path trodden by the convergence club are evident for anyone to see. Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and even Indonesia are heading down that road. The Philippines needs to wake-up to this reality. It needs to gain “a re-awakened sense” alright, not of right and wrong, but of self-empowerment and self-determination. That is the very essence of people power after all.

why family planning should be part of cash transfer program

Good news: 2 in every 1,000 previously poor Filipino families have risen above poverty from 2006 to 2009.

Bad news: the total number of poor Filipinos rose by almost a million in the same period.

According to the latest poverty statistics released by the National Statistical Coordination Board, poverty incidence among families (or the ratio of poor families against total number of families) in the Philippines dipped slightly to 20.9 percent in 2009, from 21.1 percent in 2006.

The number of poor families, on the other hand, rose by 185,000, totaling 3.86 million; in 2006, the magnitude of poor families was 3.67 million.

The numbers may seem contradictory, but they are actually not, government statisticians say.

What the figures mean is that, while some families were able to improve their lot and rise above the poverty line, the ranks of the poor continues to swell because the total number of Filipino families increased.

Read more at Newbreak

Sen. Kiko Pangilinan's 12 Christmas wishes for our country and our leader. What's yours?

PNoy’s ally in the Senate, Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, lists down yesterday, December 19, his 12 wishes for President Benigno Aquino III and for the country. First on Sen. Kiko’s list is for the peace talks in Mindanao to start, followed by a hope for a new image in the Philippine tourism industry. As what was expected, the most talked about wish among the 12 is the Senator’s 4th wish; “A girlfriend for PNoy.” Below is Sen. Kiko Pangilinan’s complete wish list this coming Christmas. Care to share yours? Read more

Snap, Crackle, Pop!

The media and blogosphere may have been mindlessly harping on the fumbling errors and bumbling missteps committed by the current administration of PNoy over the past six months in its first year in office, but the mood of the public and the markets seems to have taken it all in stride.

As latest polling by SWS reveals, PNoy and his policies continue to enjoy unprecedented confidence levels from the public. This exuberrant satisfaction is mirrored by the investor community which has driven the local bourse to all time highs following the normal transfer of power from one administration to the next during the middle of the year.

Despite its fiscal woes, the government very recently finds itself situated at a very auspicious moment in which it is able to borrow at very favorable terms. Its treasury issuance last month was oversubscribed four times leading to extremely low borrowing rates of just over three quarters of a percent for its 90-day treasury bill, nearly half what it was the previous month.

This makes it not far off from the yields of similar notes issued by the US Treasury and that of the UK, Eurozone and Japan! The governments of the struggling PIIGS economies of Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Greece and Spain are having a much harder time raising funds to bridge their fiscal gaps having resorted to the IMF for credit while the Philippines exited from that program back in 2006 having paid all of its debts to the Fund in full.

With stellar economic growth predicted to hover around 6-7% per annum and a relatively benign inflation outlook predicted to continue over the next few years, the country is poised to take-off along with other emerging economies. The next decade could see the nation address some fundamental problems like infrastructure bottlenecks and social inequity if the government plays its cards right. Already the Gini coefficient a measure of income inequality reached its lowest point for quite some time.

What many will find most remarkable in all this is that there have hardly been any changes made to the socio-economic policy settings left behind by the previous administration despite all the campaign rhetoric about change. It could be seen as an acknowledgement that many of these settings prepared the conditions now evident for better times ahead.

As proof of this consider the following: the Conditional Cash Transfers program initiated in 2008 (CCT) is being expanded, the RH bill, which was drafted and vigorously pushed for in the previous Congress by the now leader of the opposition in the lower house and ally of the former president, is being supported, and reforms in education, training, research and development are continuing.

“Normalcy” restored

The boost in confidence has occurred because of the observance of the rule of law during and after the elections which led to a credible outcome. The political transition and stability this engendered has restored the notion of the Philippines as a “normal” state once again. The same transformation of perception occurred previously in Indonesia that led to it attaining G20 status (its recent setbacks notwithstanding).

Problems of corruption and conflict will still linger, but as was shown during the 90s under the Ramos administration, they can be tempered for as long as growth with equity is pursued (it should be noted here that it was during that previous period of expansion that poverty incidence as measured by the share of the poor to the overall population, fell to its lowest point since records were kept, and the country became relatively peaceful as a result, despite the fact that the poverty headcount, or the number of poor individuals kept rising-just not as fast as the rate at which the overall population grew, proving the point that equity is important).

What is crucial over the next six years is for the observance of good governance and the “market for rules” to be enforced. As demonstrated by two previous administrations, it is quite possible for political corruption and influence peddling to co-exist with an open market economy despite the enactment of “world-class” procurement laws and the application of electronic/automated processes in awarding government contracts.

The roll out of the PPP contracts beginning next year will be a litmus test as to whether the government can enter into such agreements without anomalous transactions occurring on the side. Another one will be the ongoing campaign to lift the tax take of the country which has not been buoyed by the recent recovery in economic activity.

With these key planks in place, the government will have sufficient funds to resource reforms in social policy arenas. Without them, an overall tax hike could loom as a distinct possibility which would threaten social cohesion particularly if an increase to the regressive VAT rate is pushed.

As the year draws to a close, it is worth considering the journey the country has taken. At the start of the year, there were doubts as to whether we would be faced with a doomsday scenario come election day. There were talks of civil unrest and military adventurism following a no-election or no-proclamation scenario.

At the close of the year, the country’s financial, economic and dare I say social outlook could not end at a brighter note. Indeed there is much cause to celebrate as the prospect for an economy that crackles and pops as opposed to one that merely sizzles but fizzles takes shape.

Achieving MDG goals to require over P400 billion for 2012-2015

Achieving MDG goals to require over P400 billion for 2012-2015
Business World Online

THE GOVERNMENT needs to spend around half a trillion pesos from 2012 to 2015 if the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are to be met before the end of President Benigno C. Aquino III’s term, the Budget department yesterday said.

Budget Assistant Secretary Luz M. Cantor, speaking at a national MDG congress, said agencies involved in the implementation of the UN-sponsored objectives needed P486.55 billion to hit a 2015 deadline.

The estimate, which does not include allocations under next year’s national budget, was based on submissions by the Health, Social Welfare, Environment, Agrarian Reform, Finance and Public Works departments; People’s Credit and Finance Corp. (PCFC); Philippine Ports Authority (PPA); National Food Authority (NFA); and the Philippine Commission on Women (PCW).

Not yet included is the amount needed by the Education department.

The Social Welfare department accounts for the bulk: P343.02 billion for implementing projects related to MDG 1 or the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger. Other agencies involved in meeting this goal include the Agrarian Reform department which has sought P32.7 billion; PCFC, P7.88 billion; Finance department, P500 million; PPA, P167 million; and the NFA, P65 million.

Under next year’s budget, the Social Welfare department’s budget for its Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program was increased to P29.2 billion from this year’s P10 billion, Ms. Cantor said. Some P21.2 billion will go to conditional cash transfers (CCTs), P2.88 billion for the Supplemental Feeding Program, P881 million for the Food for Work Program for Internally Displaced Persons and P4.2 billion for rice subsidies.

The CCTs also address MDG 2 or the achievement of universal primary education and MDG 5 or the improvement of maternal health.

The PCW, in charge of MDG 3 or the promotion of gender equality and women empowerment, proposed a P222-million budget for 2012-2015.

“Among initiatives to mainstream gender sensitivity, the national government continues to carry out measures to improve the implementation of the Gender and Development Policy which directs all government department, bureaus, offices and agencies to set aside at least 5% of their annual appropriations for projects designed to address gender and development issues,” a Budget department document states.

The Health department, in charge of MDGs 4, 5 and 6 or the reduction of child mortality, improvement of maternal health and the fight against HIV/AIDS and other diseases, respectively, said it required P79.84 billion.

The Environment department, concerned with MDG 7 or the assurance of environmental sustainability, asked for P12.68 billion while Public Works department which is also working on the goal wants P9.49 billion.

“With only five years remaining, we need to do more. Statistics show that the ’business as usual’ mindset will not contribute anything substantial…,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano W. Paderanga said.

Jacqueline Badcock, UN Resident Coordinator, said: “The challenge ahead is thus to sustain progress and accelerate the pace of progress on the goals that are least likely to be achieved.” — J. J. A. Cerda

Arroyo calls CCT— irresponsible

Former President and now Congresswoman Arroyo speaking on the House floor:

<blockquote>Arroyo, speaking on the floor for the first time and at times showing flashes of her temper, said she was not against the CCT, especially since her administration started it. But she was wary about scaling up the project in so short a time.

“I am not against increasing the CCT beneficiaries, but a sudden and massive increase by more than double its previous number seems both ambitious and untimely,” she said.

“It would be irresponsible to allocate a budget for a program that is not yet fully prepared. The details may look very nice on paper, but I’ve been there Mr. Speaker. The implementation is centrally not that simple,” she added.

Arroyo also lamented that the funding for the CCT came at the expense of other crucial projects. There were less funds for farm-to-market roads, state universities and colleges, the judiciary and Visayas and Mindanao, she pointed out.</blockquote>

The Inquirer further added:

<blockquote>

Arroyo also pointed out the absence of enough birthing facilities for pregnant women who would be beneficiaries of the CCT, adding that it was better to use the money to build more of them.

“My point is, isn’t it better, isn’t it wiser to put the money in birthing units where we see the need very glaringly rather than in such a big scale of CCT where we do not know, we are not confident, very far form confident, about the absorptive capacity whether it’s in the organization itself of the program or in the allied services?” she said.

Nava, for his part, said the DSWD was in constant consultation with the education and health departments for the CCT program, and that the local government units were better equipped to do their part.

</blockquote>

Aquino has previously defended the cash aid program.  The Cusp noted in a previous article, out of the woodwork:

<blockquote>In the Philippines, one of the greatest hindrances to growth among other things is the gaping divide between socio-economic groups. We are actually latecomers to the game. Most of Latin America has implemented some form of CCT to great success. It has been dubbed “the closest thing to a silver bullet” in the fight against poverty because it targets so many aspects of human capital deficiency. Perhaps the critics should try and find some other line of attack because this one simply does not work.</blockquote>

What do you think?

Infrastructure woes hinder MDGs

Infrastructure woes hinder MDGs
Written by Cai U. Ordinario
Business Mirror

DESPITE the country’s efforts to increase social spending through programs like the conditional cash-transfer (CCT) program to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) believes that addressing infrastructure constraints will still hold the key in achieving the goals by 2015.

In a statement, ADB president Haruhiko Kuroda said developing countries like the Philippines must address basic infrastructure constraints to achieve the MDGs in five years.

Kuroda said many areas in developing countries still do not have electricity, all-weather roads and other basic infrastructure. These limit access to health care and discourage children from completing their education.

He said the region is lagging in the targets for basic sanitation, infant mortality, maternal health, hunger and environmental improvements, and reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.

“Less developed countries, or those suffering from conflicts or disaster, will need more regional help to make progress, and the Asia and Pacific region must step up cross-border cooperation in trade, investment, knowledge and technology, to help bridge gaps in resources and capacities,” the ADB added.

Addressing these concerns is National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) Director General
Dr. Cayetano Paderanga, who delivered the Philippines’ statement during the High-Level Meeting on the Millennium Development Goals in New York City.

Paderanga, who is also the Socioeconomic Planning secretary, said while the Philippines made considerable strides in meeting some of the MDGs, like cutting child mortality, and malaria and tuberculosis incidence; increasing access to sanitation and safe and potable water; and providing equal education for girls, there is still a lot to be done.

The Neda chief said the measures that will be implemented by the national government to help achieve the MDGs will be included in the Medium-Term Development Plan for 2010-2016.

He said the MTDP will make sure this growth is inclusive and can help protect the vulnerable by ensuring access of every Filipino to quality health, education and employment opportunities.

These, Paderanga said, will be done through an appropriate mix of physical and social infrastructures, and by strengthening social safety nets, like CCTs and universal health care.

“Despite the gains attained in the last decade, we need to push ourselves more to meet the MDGs, particularly where we lag behind. Moreover, the Philippine scenario is characterized by wide disparities. Our latest progress report also shows that climate change poses a threat to the achievement of our targets. The population above the poverty threshold is declining as a result of low capacities to cope with the effects of shocks leading to more ‘transient poor,’” Paderanga said in a statement.

He urged development partners to also keep their promise of sharing a portion of their gross national income (GNI) to developing countries for MDG achievement. The United Nations official development assistance target is set at 0.7 percent of GNI.

“Excellencies, as we enter the last stretch, the Philippine government is exerting all means to deliver on its promise to realize its MDGs, not just as an international commitment but because our people demand it. Let us remember that each and every one of our citizens deserves a life of quality, meaning and dignity,” Paderanga said.

For its part, the Manila-based ADB said it is targeting increased support for basic infrastructure, such as roads, power and sanitation, which are crucial for meeting MDGs.

It also intends to scale up assistance for education, and for environmental improvements, including the use of clean energy, where ADB investments have grown to more than $1 billion a year, and which are targeted to double to $2 billion by 2013.

Kuroda added that countries in the Asia and the Pacific region, which is home to three-fifths of humanity and two-thirds of the world’s poor, represent the world’s best hope for achieving the MDGs by 2015.

“With more than 500 million people having overcome poverty since 1990, the target for reducing extreme income poverty is in sight. The region is also likely to achieve near universal primary school enrollment by 2015, attain gender parity in education, meet the target on access to safe drinking water, and halt the spread of deadly diseases such as TB and HIV,” Kuroda said.

The country’s fourth progress report on the MDGs showed it had a low probability of achieving indicators—such as increase elementary education net enrollment rate, elementary education cohort survival rate, elementary education completion rate, reduce by three quarters maternal mortality, universal access to reproductive health, halt HIV prevalence among 15 year olds, and provide comprehensive correct knowledge about HIV/AIDS to 15 to 24 year olds.

The report also showed the country had a medium probability of achieving the indicators on halving the proportion of population below the poverty threshold or P15,057 per year per person, halving the prevalence of underweight children under five years old, halving the proportion of households with per capita intake below 100 percent dietary energy requirement, universal access for the proportion of the population with advanced HIV infection to antiretroviral drugs, and halve the proportion of the population with access to safe water.

The indicators also showed the Philippines had a high probability of achieving of halving the proportion of population below the food threshold or P10,025 per year per person, all the indicators of Goal 3 which pertained to gender equality and women empowerment, indicators under Goal 4 of reducing child mortality, the malaria morbidity rate, the malaria mortality rate, the tuberculosis case-detection rate, tuberculosis-cure rate, and the proportion of the population with access to sanitary toilet facilities.

The MDGs are a set of eight goals, 22 quantitative targets and more than 60 specific indicators meant to serve as a focus for international and national development policy.

The first seven goals are concerned with outcomes, identifying the progress toward certain standards of human welfare and development that should be achieved globally and nationally by 2015. The eighth goal is concerned with “global partnership for development” to support the realization of all the goals.

Out of the Woodwork

As PNoy approached the third month of his presidency, two major events unfolded. The first was the bus crisis on August 23; the second, and until recently overlooked, was the release of his first budget statement signaling the priorities of his government.

After dealing with the firestorm that engulfed his administration as a result of the mishandling of the hostage incident, PNoy has had to again ward off criticism this time regarding his budget statement for what are perceived to be serious gaps between what he promised during the campaign and what is now being programmed for delivery. Read more